2021 Salmon Estimates & 2022 Preseason Salmon Forecasts

In April, Alaska Department of Fish and Game published estimates of 2021 salmon harvests and escapements and 2022 preseason forecasts for rivers around Alaska.

2021 Kuskokwim River salmon estimates include:

• Chinook salmon total run estimate: 129,000 fish (95% CI: 94,000-178,000 fish).

• Chinook salmon escapement: 101,000 fish (95% CI: 66,000-150,000 fish). While the midpoint of the king salmon escapement estimate is 101,000 fish, this wide confidence interval means that there is little certainty in the actual escapement number. This means that we must continue our conservation concern for Chinook salmon to rebuild their populations and maintain our goal to aim for the upper end of the escapement goal range of 65,000-120,000 fish.

• Chum salmon escapement: All weir projects reported the lowest chum salmon returns on record.

2022 Kuskokwim River salmon forecasts include:

• Chinook salmon: 99,000-161,000 fish. While this forecast falls within the escapement goal range of 65,000-120,000 fish, recent years have cast doubt on the accuracy of preseason forecasts. Furthermore, this forecast falls well below historic Chinook salmon returns, meaning our concern for this species continues in the 2022 season.

Find more information from ADF&G’s report here. 2021 Kuskokwim estimates can be found on pages 21-24, and 2022 forecasts can be found on page 63.